The border between Russian and Ukraine has increased with troops, tanks and artillery on both sides of the border. If tensions escalate into an armed conflict; victory won’t depend entirely on troops or tanks.
Victory may be contingent upon who has the best use of artillery.
Ukraine has always struggled with maintaining an adequate supply of shells which could cost them in a conflict. Russia, on the other hand, may struggle with logistical issues transporting shells from railheads to the front lines.
The analysis conducted in the sources above do not include any kind of air capabilities or air operations that could occur between Russia or Ukraine, (i.e. air operations against artillery units or supplies). Air operations against artillery may become a critical variable on the outcome of this potential conflict. Russia has been recently conducting air intercepts.